monte carlo simulation analysis

monte carlo simulation analysis
Description

This report needs to be completed. Everything you need is inside the word file. Most of the work is done already. Please complete the missing section by rewriting the giving example. please don’t copy the words provided. It just meant to give you an idea in how to write this report. Please avoid complex vocabulary. ( the vocabulary used in abstract is a good example )

here is the in full instructions below for monte carlo simulation analysis

The suggested written report outline (not to exceed 4-5 pages total plus no more than 2-3 pages of appendices if necessary):

– Cover page

– Abstract (about 300 words)- ( Check the writing )

– Description of problem, objective and scope

– Methodology of analysis/modeling and assumptions

– Analysis of results (tables, figures, summary)

– Conclusions and important observations

– Refinements and future work

– References

– Appendices

Note: All pages should be numbered

All tables and figures should have titles/captions and be numbered as Table 1, Table 2,…. Fig.1, Fig. 2…

Some instructions relevant to the analysis:

(a) Assuming no uncertainty in the weights, compare results of consolidated scores for each technology where the normalizing step involves two different methods (i) the max normalization, and (ii) the min-max normalization. Assume simple linear arithmetic weighting using the weights specified in the last but one row of the table.

(b) You will now calculate uncertainties of the consolidated scores of each technology (requiring a Monte Carlo approach with 100 trials). Use the uncertainty values specified in the last row of the above table.

(c) Finally, you are asked to rank the different technologies based on a scheme involving not just the mean scores but one which also considers the variability (i.e., the risk or uncertainty involved) as indicated by the Monte Carlo analysis. The risk is proportional to the standard deviation shown in the last row of the spreadsheet.

Without any justification, I am suggesting the following weighting scheme:

Sustainability Score = 0.75 * mean score + 0.25 * standard deviation.

(you can also choose another scheme but provide some justification).

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